I received this report and summary from a friend today,
- The United Kingdom is going to have the worst economic downturn this year with a projected growth figure of -2.80%. The British economy will fare the worst among the advanced economies.
- The emerging market economies of China and India will have the best growth at 6.7% and 5.1% respectively.
- The US economy will contract by 1.6%.
- Europe’s largest economy, Germany, will shrink by 2.5%.
- The Canadian economy will fare better with a contraction of 1.2%.
- Overall the advanced economies are projected to contract by 2% while the emerging market economies are projected to grow by 3.3%. Like in the past few years, this implies that the emerging markets are going to drive global growth in 2009.
- Brazil may grow by 1.8% and the SouthEast Asian economies of Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, etc. will grow by 2.7%.
Other key bullet points from this report are:
- The world economy is facing a deep downturn.
- Financial markets remain under stress.
- A pernicious feedback loop between the real and financial sectors is taking its toll.
- Advanced economies are suffering their deepest recession since World War II.
- Emerging and developing economies are experiencing a serious slowdown.
- Anemic global growth has reversed the commodity price boom.
- Inflation pressures are subsiding.
- Global monetary and fiscal policies are providing substantial support.
- The uncertainty surrounding the outlook is unusually large.
- Strong and complementary policy efforts are needed to rekindle activity.