Not just India, the entire world is staring at a recession. Though we expect in a couple of months most countries would have controlled the spread of Coronavirus but it may not translate to the revival of the economy immediately.
The total lockdown in India was expected by a few, if not many. Most of us are not getting newspapers in the morning (expected to be normal from April 1). Irrespective of whether your job is Work From Home doable, we all are at home.
During the initial days of COVID-19 digital news sites showed an increase in traffic. An expected behaviour as,
But after some time there is an overdose of COVID-19 related news and fatigue sets in.
After the lockdown was announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi (March 24 midnight – April 14 midnight) most news related publishers have seen a spike in their traffic. People want to know what is happening around. One of the leading news aggregators reported a 100% increase in their traffic.
The above graph from Neil Patel’s blog shows the performance of various categories in the digital space. Only finance, food, healthcare and media (news) are doing well. The rest are in red.
According to FICCI’s report,
Digital publishers in India would always hope election results are not announced on a public holiday. People depend on digital news sites for updates on working days.
With a 21 days national lockdown, most people are watching TV for news, hence digital publishers will take a hit. However, the time spent on smartphones per user per week has risen by 12% (3.8 hours vs 3.4 hours per day, frankly, not that big a jump). People must be spending time on mobile-only platforms like Tiktok, Sharechat.
A few data points about TV viewership during the lockdown as per the report “Crisis Consumption: An Insights Series Into TV, Smartphones and Audiences” by BARC & Nielsen,
Publisher’s revenue had already taken a hit as ad dollars were going to Facebook and TikTok type apps.
Even though traffic has grown for the big news publishers their revenues haven’t increased in the same proportion. After all the number of advertisers who are spending on print, radio and digital have gone down.
Why would the auto, travel, finance industry spend now on advertising? You cannot even buy their products even if you want to. Also, people are conserving their savings as companies are trying to save money by asking people to take pay cuts or deferred salaries.
Direct advertising revenue would have shrunk. Only networks will be supplying the necessary oxygen to digital publishers. But then we need advertisers spending on Google Adsense. The big publishers will manage to keep their operations running, the small sites will be in trouble for some time.
Nobody can predict accurately by how much the revenues will fall for digital publishers but people expect it will fall by 33% for Q1 (Apr-Jun quarter), Q2 unknown, Q3 – well that is too far to even think about!
Facebook pledges $100 million to help news organizations,
Google is donating $340 million in ad credits to support small and medium-sized businesses with active accounts over the past year. We assume India based MSMEs will be eligible for this.
Online publishers never ask the government for help. Maybe their lobbying effort is not strong. The radio industry in India has already asked for help from the government.
Digital publishers would find it very useful if government sets aside a good 20% of its entire ad spend to digital publishers. And govt should ensure this is not gobbled up ENTIRELY by the big publishers. Small and medium publishers need help too. And yes, many digital publishers are being bad by flaring up the emotions, publishing fake news. Ban them from this list of beneficiaries.
COVID-19 has ‘infected’ digital revenues, this phase will pass. We will bounce back.
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